Polymarket runs 13,963 active prediction markets right now. This is the top 20 by dollar volume — the markets where money actually flows, sorted by their current outstanding liquidity. The full dataset behind this list — every 15-minute price tick, order book depth, and category mapping for all 13,963 markets — is in our Polymarket historical dataset.
Top 20 Active Markets by Volume
| # | Market | Category | Volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | politics | $279.6M | $4.5M |
| #2 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | geopolitics | $267.6M | $6.9M |
| #3 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | politics | $173.3M | $20.0M |
| #4 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $173.2M | $7.7M |
| #5 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $173.0M | $2.6M |
| #6 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | politics | $126.7M | $15.5M |
| #7 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | politics | $104.2M | $14.7M |
| #8 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | politics | $98.6M | $2.4M |
| #9 | Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | sports | $91.3M | $1.1M |
| #10 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $87.1M | $3.0M |
| #11 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $85.4M | $6.3M |
| #12 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | geopolitics | $74.6M | $6.6M |
| #13 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | geopolitics | $73.9M | $13.8M |
| #14 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | politics | $63.1M | $2.3M |
| #15 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | economics | $63.1M | $1.3M |
| #16 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | economics | $62.9M | $12.8M |
| #17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | economics | $62.6M | $2.1M |
| #18 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | other | $62.2M | $886K |
| #19 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | politics | $56.0M | $7.3M |
| #20 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | economics | $52.9M | $1.1M |
Snapshot from the Protodex Polymarket dataset, captured 2026-05-10.
Why Volume Matters in Prediction Markets
Volume is the single best signal of which prediction markets actually have informed traders. Low-volume markets — under $10K of total dollar flow — are dominated by noise, single-trader bias, and stale prices. The markets above clear $100K to multi-million dollars in volume, which means you can size real positions without moving the price.
How to Use This Data
- Backtesting: Restrict your strategy universe to markets above a volume floor (we use $50K) — eliminates ~70% of markets and ~95% of overfit candidates.
- Liquidity-aware sizing: Cap your position at <5% of standing liquidity to avoid eating the spread on entry and exit.
- Category screening: Politics and sports clear ~80% of total volume; weather and economics <5%. Skip the latter unless you have a domain edge.
📊 The Full Polymarket Historical Dataset
8.9M price snapshots across 9,550 prediction markets. 15-minute frequency, orderbook depth, 30 days of data. Use the same source data behind this post for your own backtests, models, and research.
Get the dataset →