Polymarket runs 22,410 active prediction markets right now. This is the top 20 by dollar volume — the markets where money actually flows, sorted by their current outstanding liquidity. The full dataset behind this list — every 15-minute price tick, reported liquidity, and category mapping for all 22,410 markets — is in our Polymarket historical dataset.
Top 20 Active Markets by Volume
| # | Market | Category | Volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | crypto | $294.5M | $20.1M |
| #2 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | politics | $279.6M | $4.5M |
| #3 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | geopolitics | $267.6M | $6.9M |
| #4 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | politics | $176.3M | $9.9M |
| #5 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | politics | $173.3M | $20.0M |
| #6 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $173.2M | $7.7M |
| #7 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $173.0M | $2.6M |
| #8 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | politics | $126.7M | $15.5M |
| #9 | Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $107.5M | $6.5M |
| #10 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $106.8M | $3.4M |
| #11 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | politics | $104.2M | $14.7M |
| #12 | Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $99.5M | $7.4M |
| #13 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | politics | $98.6M | $2.4M |
| #14 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $93.4M | $8.0M |
| #15 | Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | sports | $91.3M | $1.1M |
| #16 | Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $89.3M | $3.3M |
| #17 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $89.3M | $14.4M |
| #18 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | politics | $87.8M | $1.6M |
| #19 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $87.1M | $3.0M |
| #20 | Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $86.4M | $22.0M |
Snapshot from the Protodex Polymarket dataset, captured 2026-07-04.
Why Volume Matters in Prediction Markets
Volume is the single best signal of which prediction markets actually have informed traders. Low-volume markets — under $10K of total dollar flow — are dominated by noise, single-trader bias, and stale prices. The markets above clear $100K to multi-million dollars in volume, which means you can size real positions without moving the price.
How to Use This Data
- Backtesting: Restrict your strategy universe to markets above a volume floor (we use $50K) — eliminates ~70% of markets and ~95% of overfit candidates.
- Liquidity-aware sizing: Cap your position at <5% of standing liquidity to avoid eating the spread on entry and exit.
- Category screening: Politics and sports clear ~80% of total volume; weather and economics <5%. Skip the latter unless you have a domain edge.
📊 The Full Polymarket Historical Dataset
17.3M+ price snapshots across 20,500+ prediction markets. 15-minute frequency, 85+ days of data, updated weekly. Use the same source data behind this post for your own backtests, models, and research.
Get the dataset →