Polymarket runs 26,237 active prediction markets right now. This is the top 20 by dollar volume — the markets where money actually flows, sorted by their current outstanding liquidity. The full dataset behind this list — every 15-minute price tick, reported liquidity, and category mapping for all 26,237 markets — is in our Polymarket historical dataset.
Top 20 Active Markets by Volume
| # | Market | Category | Volume | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | crypto | $294.5M | $20.1M |
| #2 | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | politics | $279.6M | $4.5M |
| #3 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | geopolitics | $267.6M | $6.9M |
| #4 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | politics | $176.3M | $9.9M |
| #5 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | politics | $173.3M | $20.0M |
| #6 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $173.2M | $7.7M |
| #7 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | economics | $173.0M | $2.6M |
| #8 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $152.2M | $3.3M |
| #9 | Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $142.5M | $4.8M |
| #10 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $140.7M | $6.3M |
| #11 | Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $137.8M | $2.8M |
| #12 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $137.3M | $1.3M |
| #13 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $133.3M | $8.1M |
| #14 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $132.8M | $11.4M |
| #15 | Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $129.3M | $5.0M |
| #16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | politics | $126.7M | $15.5M |
| #17 | Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $119.2M | $6.6M |
| #18 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $116.5M | $8.2M |
| #19 | Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $111.7M | $6.3M |
| #20 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | sports | $109.5M | $6.6M |
Snapshot from the Protodex Polymarket dataset, captured 2026-07-14.
Why Volume Matters in Prediction Markets
Volume is the single best signal of which prediction markets actually have informed traders. Low-volume markets — under $10K of total dollar flow — are dominated by noise, single-trader bias, and stale prices. The markets above clear $100K to multi-million dollars in volume, which means you can size real positions without moving the price.
How to Use This Data
- Backtesting: Restrict your strategy universe to markets above a volume floor (we use $50K) — eliminates ~70% of markets and ~95% of overfit candidates.
- Liquidity-aware sizing: Cap your position at <5% of standing liquidity to avoid eating the spread on entry and exit.
- Category screening: Politics and sports clear ~80% of total volume; weather and economics <5%. Skip the latter unless you have a domain edge.
📊 The Full Polymarket Historical Dataset
23.0M+ price snapshots across 24,600+ prediction markets. 15-minute frequency, 99+ days of data, updated weekly. Use the same source data behind this post for your own backtests, models, and research.
Get the dataset →