Live Bot Audit

Polymarket Crash Bot Execution Proof

Public audit page of the LuciferForge mean-reversion crash bot. Performance metrics, win rate, and individual trade fills are compiled directly from the verified 308-trade dataset.

Performance Summary

80.19%
Win Rate
$231.12
Realized P&L
308
Total Trades
15.4h
Avg. Hold Time

Strategy Parameters

Entry Trigger

Market drop of 15% or more in a rolling 4-hour window. Sized at $3-$5 per trade using scalar outcome price checks.

Exit Targets

Exit trade upon 90% price recovery to pre-crash high, or execute a hard timeout exit at exactly 48 hours.

On-Chain Safety

Monitored by pnl-truthteller for slippage auditing and safety-guarded with a 30-minute veto window on parameter rollouts.

Execution History (Latest 100 Trades)

Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (4.1 shares) | Entry: $0.245 | Exit: $0.260 | Hold: 4.4h
+$1.64
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (6.5 shares) | Entry: $0.155 | Exit: $0.165 | Hold: 1.3h
+$7.90
Will the Republicans win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (15.0 shares) | Entry: $0.067 | Exit: $0.045 | Hold: 24.0h
+$3.57
Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (10.0 shares) | Entry: $0.100 | Exit: $0.105 | Hold: 0.8h
+$9.10
Will the Republicans win the Arkansas governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (15.3 shares) | Entry: $0.066 | Exit: $0.071 | Hold: 0.5h
+$10.59
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (8.0 shares) | Entry: $0.125 | Exit: $0.145 | Hold: 4.9h
+$5.20
Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (4.1 shares) | Entry: $0.245 | Exit: $0.275 | Hold: 2.4h
+$5.18
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (8.7 shares) | Entry: $0.115 | Exit: $0.140 | Hold: 1.6h
+$9.25
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (14.3 shares) | Entry: $0.070 | Exit: $0.090 | Hold: 12.0h
+$5.22
Will David Portnoy give another 9+ pizza review by April 30?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (8.3 shares) | Entry: $0.120 | Exit: $0.160 | Hold: 0.3h
+$0.33
Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (23.0 shares) | Entry: $0.043 | Exit: $0.048 | Hold: 0.3h
+$0.10
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (3.3 shares) | Entry: $0.300 | Exit: $0.305 | Hold: 24.1h
+$1.78
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (3.4 shares) | Entry: $0.290 | Exit: $0.300 | Hold: 24.1h
+$2.01
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (16.7 shares) | Entry: $0.060 | Exit: $0.075 | Hold: 1.3h
+$0.25
Will the Democrats win the Delaware Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.055 | Hold: 12.0h
+$0.00
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (4.3 shares) | Entry: $0.230 | Exit: $0.240 | Hold: 12.2h
+$0.04
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (4.9 shares) | Entry: $0.205 | Exit: $0.230 | Hold: 0.3h
+$0.12
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.050 | Hold: 12.1h
$-0.09
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (26.7 shares) | Entry: $0.037 | Exit: $0.048 | Hold: 7.3h
+$0.28
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (14.3 shares) | Entry: $0.070 | Exit: $0.080 | Hold: 3.9h
+$0.14
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (14.3 shares) | Entry: $0.070 | Exit: $0.080 | Hold: 0.5h
+$0.14
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (3.8 shares) | Entry: $0.260 | Exit: $0.260 | Hold: 12.2h
+$0.00
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (4.3 shares) | Entry: $0.230 | Exit: $0.220 | Hold: 12.2h
$-0.04
Will the Republicans win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (25.0 shares) | Entry: $0.040 | Exit: $0.040 | Hold: 12.2h
+$0.00
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (13.1 shares) | Entry: $0.076 | Exit: $0.077 | Hold: 12.0h
+$0.01
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (4.9 shares) | Entry: $0.205 | Exit: $0.250 | Hold: 3.8h
+$0.22
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (14.1 shares) | Entry: $0.071 | Exit: $0.105 | Hold: 0.4h
+$0.48
Will Iraq recognize Israel by June 30?
TIMEOUT | Size: $1.00 (22.5 shares) | Entry: $0.044 | Exit: $0.043 | Hold: 12.2h
$-0.02
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (5.6 shares) | Entry: $0.180 | Exit: $0.210 | Hold: 2.4h
+$0.17
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (7.0 shares) | Entry: $0.143 | Exit: $0.213 | Hold: 0.3h
+$0.49
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (7.0 shares) | Entry: $0.142 | Exit: $0.157 | Hold: 0.3h
+$0.10
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (6.5 shares) | Entry: $0.155 | Exit: $0.175 | Hold: 2.2h
+$0.13
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (7.7 shares) | Entry: $0.130 | Exit: $0.150 | Hold: 0.5h
+$0.15
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (23.5 shares) | Entry: $0.043 | Exit: $0.052 | Hold: 1.3h
+$0.22
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (8.7 shares) | Entry: $0.115 | Exit: $0.130 | Hold: 3.3h
+$0.13
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (11.0 shares) | Entry: $0.091 | Exit: $0.148 | Hold: 8.0h
+$0.63
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (5.7 shares) | Entry: $0.175 | Exit: $0.195 | Hold: 6.7h
+$0.11
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (8.0 shares) | Entry: $0.125 | Exit: $0.145 | Hold: 1.8h
+$0.16
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.5 shares) | Entry: $0.685 | Exit: $0.795 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.16
Will the 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football draft be a QB?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (31.7 shares) | Entry: $0.032 | Exit: $0.011 | Hold: 12.2h
$-0.63
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (14.3 shares) | Entry: $0.070 | Exit: $0.075 | Hold: 12.1h
+$0.07
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (2.1 shares) | Entry: $0.471 | Exit: $0.514 | Hold: 6.0h
+$0.09
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (2.5 shares) | Entry: $0.405 | Exit: $0.500 | Hold: 7.8h
+$0.23
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.2 shares) | Entry: $0.807 | Exit: $0.892 | Hold: 4.0h
+$0.11
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.9 shares) | Entry: $0.520 | Exit: $0.585 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.12
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.065 | Hold: 10.3h
+$0.18
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (2.3 shares) | Entry: $0.444 | Exit: $0.493 | Hold: 3.8h
+$0.11
Consensys IPO closing market cap above $3B?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.3 shares) | Entry: $0.745 | Exit: $0.880 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.18
U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (14.8 shares) | Entry: $0.068 | Exit: $0.049 | Hold: 12.1h
$-0.27
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (20.2 shares) | Entry: $0.050 | Exit: $0.071 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.43
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (3.3 shares) | Entry: $0.305 | Exit: $0.330 | Hold: 8.8h
+$0.08
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.065 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.18
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (13.3 shares) | Entry: $0.075 | Exit: $0.085 | Hold: 11.6h
+$0.13
Felix Protocol FDV above $50M one day after launch?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.4 shares) | Entry: $0.714 | Exit: $0.842 | Hold: 5.3h
+$0.18
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (3.8 shares) | Entry: $0.260 | Exit: $0.345 | Hold: 0.8h
+$0.33
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.6 shares) | Entry: $0.645 | Exit: $0.765 | Hold: 1.5h
+$0.19
Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (26.0 shares) | Entry: $0.038 | Exit: $0.043 | Hold: 1.0h
+$0.10
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (5.9 shares) | Entry: $0.170 | Exit: $0.189 | Hold: 0.8h
+$0.11
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (3.8 shares) | Entry: $0.260 | Exit: $0.310 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.19
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (14.3 shares) | Entry: $0.070 | Exit: $0.080 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.14
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.6 shares) | Entry: $0.635 | Exit: $0.725 | Hold: 2.5h
+$0.14
Will the Democrats win the Illinois Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (15.4 shares) | Entry: $0.065 | Exit: $0.065 | Hold: 36.0h
+$0.00
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.5 shares) | Entry: $0.675 | Exit: $0.730 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.08
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (8.0 shares) | Entry: $0.125 | Exit: $0.135 | Hold: 5.3h
+$0.08
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.7 shares) | Entry: $0.600 | Exit: $0.670 | Hold: 2.5h
+$0.12
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (29.9 shares) | Entry: $0.034 | Exit: $0.035 | Hold: 40.8h
+$0.03
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (27.4 shares) | Entry: $0.036 | Exit: $0.045 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.23
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (3.2 shares) | Entry: $0.315 | Exit: $0.360 | Hold: 10.4h
+$0.14
Will Arvell Reese be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (3.4 shares) | Entry: $0.295 | Exit: $0.330 | Hold: 3.3h
+$0.12
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (8.8 shares) | Entry: $0.114 | Exit: $0.140 | Hold: 1.3h
+$0.23
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (15.4 shares) | Entry: $0.065 | Exit: $0.065 | Hold: 48.2h
+$0.00
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 1.0%?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (7.4 shares) | Entry: $0.136 | Exit: $0.160 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.17
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (15.2 shares) | Entry: $0.066 | Exit: $0.075 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.14
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.060 | Hold: 0.5h
+$0.09
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (3.3 shares) | Entry: $0.300 | Exit: $0.290 | Hold: 48.2h
$-0.03
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (4.4 shares) | Entry: $0.225 | Exit: $0.260 | Hold: 0.8h
+$0.16
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (5.9 shares) | Entry: $0.170 | Exit: $0.190 | Hold: 4.1h
+$0.12
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (3.0 shares) | Entry: $0.335 | Exit: $0.410 | Hold: 13.2h
+$0.22
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (4.4 shares) | Entry: $0.225 | Exit: $0.225 | Hold: 48.1h
+$0.00
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.8 shares) | Entry: $0.555 | Exit: $0.665 | Hold: 0.5h
+$0.20
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.9 shares) | Entry: $0.530 | Exit: $0.605 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.14
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.5 shares) | Entry: $0.670 | Exit: $0.725 | Hold: 1.3h
+$0.08
Will the Republicans win the Maryland governor race in 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.055 | Hold: 48.1h
+$0.00
Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (7.4 shares) | Entry: $0.135 | Exit: $0.100 | Hold: 48.1h
$-0.26
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (4.0 shares) | Entry: $0.250 | Exit: $0.375 | Hold: 8.2h
+$0.50
Will Solstice launch a token by June 30 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (10.0 shares) | Entry: $0.101 | Exit: $0.021 | Hold: 48.2h
$-0.79
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (2.7 shares) | Entry: $0.375 | Exit: $0.425 | Hold: 0.3h
+$0.13
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (3.6 shares) | Entry: $0.280 | Exit: $0.300 | Hold: 8.2h
+$0.07
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (17.1 shares) | Entry: $0.059 | Exit: $0.013 | Hold: 48.2h
$-0.79
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.5 shares) | Entry: $0.670 | Exit: $0.720 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.07
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (4.9 shares) | Entry: $0.205 | Exit: $0.225 | Hold: 30.8h
+$0.10
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (17.1 shares) | Entry: $0.059 | Exit: $0.061 | Hold: 48.2h
+$0.04
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets make the NHL Playoffs?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.3 shares) | Entry: $0.795 | Exit: $0.875 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.10
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30?
TIMEOUT_48H | Size: $1.00 (8.7 shares) | Entry: $0.115 | Exit: $0.110 | Hold: 48.2h
$-0.04
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (25.6 shares) | Entry: $0.039 | Exit: $0.048 | Hold: 0.8h
+$0.22
Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (12.5 shares) | Entry: $0.080 | Exit: $0.100 | Hold: 21.4h
+$0.25
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (5.9 shares) | Entry: $0.170 | Exit: $0.210 | Hold: 0.2h
+$0.24
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.065 | Hold: 12.2h
+$0.18
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (1.7 shares) | Entry: $0.590 | Exit: $0.690 | Hold: 0.5h
+$0.17
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?
RECOVERY | Size: $1.00 (18.2 shares) | Entry: $0.055 | Exit: $0.060 | Hold: 6.9h
+$0.09